2025-04-04 WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT - UPDATED FLOOD OUTLOOK
Weather Forecast: A low-pressure system is forecast to move across the lower Great Lakes in the afternoon/evening on Friday April 4 and throughout Saturday April 5. Due to the degree of uncertainty of where the storm system will track, the current forecast anticipates 15mm - 25mm of rain.
The temperature is expected to stay above the freezing mark for the duration of the precipitation event.
Watershed Conditions: Watercourses and lakes peaked last week from the initial spring snowmelt and despite a decline, remain elevated. Levels and flows across much of the Quinte region remain higher due to recent rains. This event was well-below the average seasonal spring peak for the region. The forecasted rainfall and warm temperatures will cause remaining snow to melt. Most of the snowpack along highway 7 and south of there, has already melted. Watershed soil remains saturated with reduced ability to absorb rainfall.
Tributaries and lakes in the upper Moira Watershed (including Moria River upstream of Stoco Lake, Black and Skootamatta Rivers) are currently rising quickly and will continue to rise in response to weekend forecast rains. Peak water levels will exceed bankful levels and should occur early next week, then recede quickly. Stoco and Moira Lakes are currently still below bankful conditions and will rise in a more muted response.
In all watersheds, it is anticipated that watercourses and inland lakes will continue to rise early next week in response to the expected precipitation. The rate at which water levels are expected to rise will be faster than the previous peak due to ground conditions and high flows.
In all watersheds, water levels will reach (or possibly exceed in the smaller tributaries) bankful conditions by early next week. Due to the high level of uncertainty with the long-term prediction, flood forecasting staff will closely monitor the situation and will update flood messaging if conditions warrant.
Risks: Localized flooding is possible in flood-prone and low-lying areas. All ice-covered water should be considered unsafe.
Shoreline properties in the upper Moira watershed will see a quick rise and fall in water levels over the weekend and localized flooding is likely in flood-prone and low-lying areas. Water levels are not expected to reach levels that will impact most inhabited structures.
Actions: Residents in flood prone or low-lying areas should closely watch water levels and take necessary precautions to protect their property. Ensure sump pumps are in good working condition and that there is access to a portable backup generator and pump. Reduce ponding by keeping ditches, culverts, and storm drains clear from obstructions.
A FLOOD OUTLOOK STATEMENT gives early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snowmelt, high wind or other conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion.
This message will be in effect until (or updated before) April 18, 2025
Additional Information: For current water levels or to report changes in water levels, residents are encouraged to visit QuinteConservation.ca.
Quinte Conservation is a community-based environmental protection agency. It serves 18 municipalities in the watersheds of the Moira, Napanee and Salmon Rivers and Prince Edward County. It provides cost-effective environmental expertise and leadership. Quinte Conservation’s main goal is to create a sustainable ecosystem where people and nature live in harmony. More information about Quinte Conservation is available at www.quinteconservation.ca.
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For more information contact:
Dave Eastcott, Water Resources Technologist
(613) 968-3434 ext. 126 OR (613) 354-3312 ext. 126